A prominent voice in the crypto space is issuing a timely warning: the threat quantum computing poses to Bitcoin may be more imminent than many assume. According to Anatoly Yakovenko, co-founder of Solana, the cryptographic foundations of the world’s first cryptocurrency could face a significant test within the next few years.
Speaking at the All-In Summit 2025, Yakovenko assigned a sobering probability to the risk. “I feel like it’s 50/50 that we’ll see a quantum breakthrough within five years,” he stated, adding that the prudent course of action would be to “migrate Bitcoin to a quantum-resistant signature scheme.”
This sense of urgency stems from rapid advancements in the field, notably projects like Google’s Willow. The core concern is that quantum computers could soon become powerful enough to run Shor’s algorithm, a theoretical concept with the practical potential to crack the elliptic curve cryptography that currently secures every Bitcoin wallet.
While some within the industry view this as a distant, speculative problem, Yakovenko argues that the blistering pace of AI development suggests otherwise. He encourages the community to accelerate its efforts, noting that ideas are now moving from academic research to real-world implementation at an “astounding” rate. He points to tech giants like Google and Apple already transitioning their systems to quantum-resistant frameworks as a clear sign of the direction the wind is blowing.
However, upgrading Bitcoin presents a unique set of challenges not faced by centralized corporations. Unlike Apple or Google, Bitcoin operates without a central authority, a defined governance structure, or an official development team to mandate and deploy upgrades. This very decentralized nature, which lends the network its renowned reliability and resilience, can become a handicap when swift, coordinated action is required. Reaching a consensus on a change of this magnitude is a complex, deliberate process, making a rapid transition inherently difficult.
Despite his warnings about the quantum future, Yakovenko was quick to praise Bitcoin’s enduring strength against present-day threats. When questioned about the potential market impact of a collapse by major corporate holders like MicroStrategy, he expressed confidence in the network’s fundamental resilience.
“I think Bitcoin is resilient to these entities collapsing,” he affirmed. “It won’t be without painful risk for people who own Bitcoin, but the network will survive. All the properties of Bitcoin that people value will remain through that transition.”
He also underscored the network’s robust security against potential attacks by governments or other malicious actors. Due to what he called the “elegance and simplicity” of Bitcoin’s proof-of-work consensus mechanism, executing such a hijack would be “extremely hard to pull off.”
“The reason it hasn’t been hacked is because it’s so simple,” Yakovenko concluded. “In my view, the coolest piece of software written in the last 20 years is, I would say, Bitcoin.”
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