For years, the idea that quantum computers could one day crack crypto wallets sounded like science fiction. But after Google’s latest research announcement, that future seems a lot closer. The company’s advances bring quantum tech nearer to practical uses in medicine and materials science, and potentially, to breaking the encryption that keeps Bitcoin safe.
In a paper quietly published this week, Google detailed progress that many researchers see as a key milestone toward practical quantum computing, with potential benefits in the future. Still, the same technology could one day be turned toward more dangerous ends, like accessing Bitcoin wallets.
“Google keeps delivering on its milestones, right on schedule,” observed Pierre-Luc Dallaire-Demers, a quantum computing researcher and founder of the Pauli Group, a firm specializing in blockchain cryptography. “With each step, the threat to Bitcoin becomes less theoretical and more real.”
According to Dallaire-Demers, this new progress fits neatly with his earlier prediction: within four to five years, quantum computers could become powerful enough to break the encryption that protects Bitcoin.
Bitcoin transactions are secured through digital signatures derived from advanced cryptographic algorithms. At present, reversing these signatures requires infeasible levels of computational power. However, a sufficiently capable quantum computer could theoretically decrypt them, enabling unauthorized access to cryptocurrency wallets.
Deloitte’s 2024 study estimates that one-quarter of all existing Bitcoin, worth about $554 billion, could be compromised by a sufficiently advanced quantum computer. This same weakness also affects a broad range of systems that depend on encryption, from secure websites to banking platforms and messaging apps.
Some experts predict a longer timeline, though they see little reason for comfort. Paulo Viana, a quantum computing researcher, estimates that we have around eight years before the threat becomes critical. “Considering how challenging it will be to shift the entire system to quantum-safe encryption,” he said, “eight years still feels dangerously close.”
Importantly, Bitcoin’s infrastructure wouldn’t immediately collapse. The first to be affected would likely be older “Pay-To-Public-Key” wallets, mostly created before 2012, since they use weaker cryptography. For most users, protection is straightforward: transferring funds to a newer wallet that masks the public key.
Some wallets can’t be fixed that easily, though. Take Satoshi Nakamoto’s stash, around 1.1 million Bitcoin, or roughly $122 billion. They’re sitting in old, exposed wallets, and since Nakamoto hasn’t surfaced in over 14 years, those coins probably aren’t going anywhere.
Viana warns that the most chilling part may be the silence. “There will be no clear sign when quantum computers begin breaching Bitcoin’s encryption,” he said. Any attack would blend in perfectly, masquerading as a simple withdrawal from an aging wallet, the sort of transaction that draws no suspicion.
Maybe you would like other interesting articles?